The result of this is that issues that matter to many of these voters will not be addressed by the candidates. The candidates will not be spending much time or money in these states (except for fundraisers; candidates from both parties love to come to New York for fundraisers, and not much else), rightfully focusing their strategies on the swing states. In addition, because electoral votes are parsed out to the states based on the amount of representation in Congress each state has, smaller states' electors represent a smaller slice of the population than electors from states with large populations, skewing the power of their votes. This is not democracy. 

I have lived in New York City for the past thirteen years. This will be my fourth presidential election in the state, and it will be the fourth in which I could stay home and not affect the outcome at all. I moved here from Ohio, the swingiest of swing states. Anyone who stays home on election day in that state is determined not to participate in our national politics. I want my vote to matter again like it did when I lived in Ohio.

It's an absolute farce that the President of the United States is not chosen based on popular vote. The farce becomes even more outrageous when one considers it is possible for a candidate to win only twenty-two percent of the popular vote yet win the Electoral College. This is real. 

Elections are not a complicated set of concepts. Whoever has the most votes wins. Only politicians could fuck up something so simple. Doing away with the Electoral College would force candidates to consider the wants and needs of the entire electorate, not just those in swing states. The winning candidate will probably still prevail by millions of votes, meaning an individual could stay home and not affect the outcome. But the crucial difference is that all of the voters in the entire country will be residing in a place where the outcome of the election is unknown. This increased uncertainty increases the incentive to vote. And never again will there be a winner of the presidential election that did not actually win the election. That is democracy.

This race has not been a sprint. Unless something changes the public perception of one of the candidates enough to give them unstoppable momentum, the primaries will continue to be a long slog. That could happen. Rick Santorum was able to claim last night that he had won the evening, owing to his victories in the Alabama and Mississippi contests. Yes, Santorum won those two events. But there were four primaries last night, not two. American Samoa and Hawaii also held their primaries, and Romney won both of those. In addition, the proportional distribution of delegates that most states have used to this point means that a slim victory in a state doesn't do much to either increase Romney's delegate lead, or help close the gap for Santorum. 

Last night, Santorum took 36 delegates, while Romney took 43. The lead stories from the news media this morning featured a beaming Santorum, but in fact, Romney won the evening. Perception being a rather huge deal in the primaries, don't expect Santorum to admit things didn't go as well as he needed them to last night. After all...Hawaii? American Samoa? That isn't REAL America. Mississippi and Alabama are real places with real people, and Santorum won those. 

Santorum could conceivably win a majority of the remaining contests yet still come up short on delegates. This is where perception comes in. There are 26 contests remaining, about half of which apportion delegates proportionally. I find it hard to believe the party wouldn't nominate a candidate that won at least the majority of those contests regardless of how the delegates were apportioned. In short, the GOP is headed for a mess of a convention. 

While apportioning delegates proportionally is more fair than the winner take all system the Democrats use throughout their primaries, it comes with its own inherent caveats. In a proportional system, it's easier for a mediocre frontrunner to pull away from the pack, and more difficult for a second place challenger to make up ground. 

What if every GOP primary and caucus were winner take all? Including pledged superdelegates, but not counting a handful of unallocated delegates, the numbers change to Romney: 521; Santorum: 335; Gingrich: 94; Paul: 1. What was a 243 delegate lead for Romney becomes a 186 delegate lead. This confirms that the proportional primary system the GOP uses is helping Romney while making it hard for Rick Santorum, who has built remarkable momentum these last weeks, to put forth an effective challenge. But that's not all the help Romney is getting.

Romney is getting smoked by hardcore conservatives. He has not won their vote in any of the contests to date. Instead, those voters are splitting their votes between Santorum and Gingrich. If Gingrich had not been in the race, it's conceivable that Santorum could have won South Carolina, Georgia, and Ohio. Not enough to put Santorum in the lead, but it puts him somewhere around 100 delegates closer to Romney. (The math on this one is speculative and a bit esoteric, as there is no way to know for sure how conservatives would have voted without Gingrich around. But I think it works.)

The GOP is getting tired of the drawn out pace of this primary season, but tweaking the race in just a couple different ways shows that it could be a closer, and therefore more drawn out, contest.

The next few weeks feature contests in more cosmopolitan areas of the country, including Maryland, Connecticut, New York, Rhode Island, and Illinois. Look for Romney to head into May with an even bigger lead than he has now. 

     And Ohio is what the GOP is hanging their nomination on. Ohio is a populous state, and a complicated one. I doubt that any candidate in the next 20 years will understand what it means to be from Ohio. The whole state is about the slow decline of America. It's seen manufacturing jobs leave, college graduates bolt, and it's biggest three cities make the top ten list of the most despised cities in America. Holy shit.

     Yet Ohio matters. Amazing.

     Still no more news from the campaign front.

Me: better than watching lohan on snl

Shane: true

Big Bang Theory on Fox, local news everywhere else. There's nothing I want more on Super Tuesday than to watch the local talent weigh in on a national election. After all, every single one of them proved their reportorial talents during the last tanker explosion on I-95.

     Russell and Carlos have been relative non-entities tonight. Carlos made his customary early exit after preparing his exquisite meatball subs. But Russell is still here. Here's a short exchange, partly in real time.

     Me: What do you think of Rick Santorum?

     Russell: He's an asshole.

     Me: Anything more specific?

     Russell: No way. It's obvious. The man is an asshole. No explanation necessary.

     Me: So who's going to win Ohio?

     Russell: How the fuck am I supposed to know? I don't know, man. I'm not from Ohio. You're from Ohio. Why the fuck don't you know?

     Me: What about Romney? You think he's going to come out ahead tonight?

     Russell: Maybe. I don't know, man. I mean, the Republicans have been in the news but, fuck them, man. I ain't voting for any of those assholes. Come November, I don't see any one of them getting it, you know?

     Me: So you're going to vote for Obama?

     Russell: Maybe, man. I guess. If I vote, you know. Yeah. I mean, Obama hasn't been all that, but these guys (gesturing at television), shit. They're straight up assholes. Fuck them.

     Well said, my friend. Well said.

NBC News is on the air. Congratulations, assholes.

     This can be a serious problem. With Romney, it's proving to be.

     Of the last 12 presidents, 8 came from nothing. They grew up either poor, underprivileged, or a combination of the two. We are historically a country that elects nouveau riche to the White House. That, combined with Romney's complete tone-deafness to American conditions, does not bode well for Romney in the fall.

     Romney is giving his victory speech now, and he's saying that the danger of an Obama reelection is an unrestrained second term. That may be convenient for a campaign speech, but it's damn far away from the facts. A president's second term is always, ALWAYS, a total waste of time.

     Let's go through history a bit.

     George W. Bush came into his second term with an inflated sense of his mandate, picturing an overhaul of social security featuring privatization as within his reach. He was rebuffed immediately, and spent the entirety of his second term in damage control, and fixing a disastrous Iraq War.

     Clinton spent his second term fighting off partisan attacks and a ridiculous impeachment.

     Reagan spent his second term in danger of persecution for the Iran-Contra affair, and a massive amount of other indictments. To this day, no other administration in American history has sent as many officials to jail. His second term was totally crippled.

     Nixon had Watergate. Enough said.

     Johnson was so screwed, he bowed out rather than run for a second term.

     And on and on and on. Second terms are a historical black hole for presidents. Any president who thinks they can put off big policy ideas to the second term is woefully misguided, as there has never been a second term president in history that has been a maverick. 

     GOP, if Obama wins, don't despair. He, and his aides, will probably spend so much time testifying or fending off subpoenas that nothing will get done for the next four years.

     No new states called.

     As he finally takes the stage, he is presaged by his family, marching out dutifully in kakis and sweater vests. He is rocking Steubenville.

     So far, nothing incendiary, but it's early. The man is still praising his large Catholic family. This could take all night.

     Romney is ahead in Wyoming. Santorum takes Oklahoma. Impossible to say at this point how many delegates each candidate has won, since the GOP primaries are weighted, and therefore, fair.

     Russell: That's Santorum, huh?

     Me: Yep.

     Russell: You know, man. I read that shit in the Village Voice when Savage hung that shit on his name.

     Me: Yeah, that was something, right?

     Russell: Tell you what, man. Santorum may be an asshole, but what do you have to do to deserve some shit like that.

     Me: He's not just an asshole, Russell. He's a HUGE asshole. You know that.

     Russell: ...Yeah, you're probably right. Fuck that guy. What the fuck does he care about sex anyways? He's old as fuck. Is he still fucking? If sex is all about having kids, is he still fucking his wife?

     And there it is. That's a good fucking question. Former senator Rick Santorum, you have seven kids. You have stated that the purpose of sex is procreation. Are you still having sex with your wife? Are you still trying to procreate after all these years, or is there a religious exception for longterm marriages?

     Do you think it is okay for insurance companies to cover Viagra for men whose wives are past menopause? By your logic, every time they make whoopee is a sin. How does your sex life compare? An unfair comparison? Not if you're going to be objective about bedroom morality.

     Now Santorum is into Obamacare. And we creep into the crazy. It would be one thign if Santorum were against the federal insurance mandate for conservative reasons. Rather, he's against it because he sees elements of it as an attack against religion. Oh shit.

     What I'm curious about is how the Jehovah's Witnesses or Christian Scientists are handling the new healthcare law. Fringe elements within those religions shun healthcare completely. Yet their taxes contribute to Medicaid and Medicare. Is there going to be an exemption under a Santorum administration for these religions? 

     Carlos: Blow me, Ricardo.

     Blow me, indeed.

     

Network update!

Fuck the catalogue of shows. None of the networks is airing news on Super Tuesday. Once again, I would remind my viewers that the networks broadcast on publicly owned spectrum, yet they are, to this point, ignoring the most important voting day of the year. How dare they!

     Santorum wins Tennessee.

Cougar Town, I Hate My Teenage Daughter, The Biggest Loser, NCIS.

This evening is only about the leader of the free world, no need to report on it.