Missile Test Predicts! The 2016 Results

Holy fuck, America. We did it. We actually voted into the Oval Office a man who didn’t know, until he met with President Obama last week, that all the staffers in the West Wing are Democrats and will have to be replaced. We voted into office a man who hired, as his chief strategist, a white nationalist propagandist. We voted into office a man who, during the campaign, could be relied upon to disqualify himself from said office at least once a week, either through word or deed. But most importantly, America’s voting public went with most of my 2016 election gambling picks, thereby ensuring my Loyal Seven readers, who faithfully follow my advice, early and prosperous retirements. The results are below. My picks are first, with the winner in bold.

U.S. Presidential Election — Electoral College Winner

Hillary Clinton -350, Donald Trump +250

Missile Test has been for scrapping the Electoral College for as long as the site has existed. I never needed any more evidence that it was an archaic and undemocratic means of choosing a president than the final result of the 2000 election, when Al Gore won the popular vote by 550,000 votes, and lost the Electoral vote. Now here we are again, with Donald Trump riding a wave of popular discontent into the White House while receiving a million votes less than Hillary Clinton. All the arguments floating around in the tubes and on television in support of the Electoral College all fail to acknowledge one thing. Under the current system, some votes are worth more than others. The Electoral College is a clear violation of the idea of ‘one person, one vote.’ The sooner it goes away, the better. But I wouldn’t place a bet on it.

U.S. Presidential Election — Donald Trump Electoral College Tally

Over 238.5 -105, Under 238.5 -135

U.S. Presidential Election — Hillary Clinton Electoral College Tally

Under 299.5 +115, Over 299.5 -155

Well, I got these two picks right. I’m a pessimist by nature, so I couldn’t bring myself to think Clinton’s Electoral tally would be close to the tallies Obama wracked up in his two runs, but I did not think Clinton would lose. As Tuesday night wore on, and all the states around the Great Lakes she was supposed to win remained too close to call, I realized that the script had flipped. Her path to victory was the narrow one, not Trump’s.

U.S. Presidential Election — Popular Vote Winner

Clinton -375, Trump +260

Again, it is beyond ridiculous that we have a system where the popular vote loser can win the presidency. This is the 21st century. I don’t want to hear any nonsense about the nightmares of a nationwide recount. Over a billion dollars changes hands in U.S. retail sales every single day. Accounting is a science in this country. We can count votes properly should we wish it.

And as for ensuring the concerns of small states don’t get ignored, I am a little tired of living in cities and not having my concerns addressed by presidential candidates, as well. Either way, the small state argument is a total myth. The only states that are contested in every election are battleground states. That’s it. The candidates don’t care about large or small. They care about whether the Electoral votes are available. The Electoral College exists to disproportionately benefit some voters above others, specifically the landholding voters of the slave south who saw their votes for president empowered by the three-fifths compromise. That has been its intention since day one. Please, tell me again why we still have something with such cancerous origins in our elections.

U.S. Presidential Election — Clinton Total States Won

Under 25.5 -145, Over 25.5 +105

U.S. Presidential Election — Trump Total States Won

Over 25.5 -140, Under 25.5 Even

U.S. Presidential Election — Arizona Result

Trump -280, Clinton +185

Trump’s racist rhetoric was threatening to make Arizona a battleground, right up until FBI Director James Comey dropped a bomb right in the middle of Clinton’s campaign. This is one of those states that won’t be Republican for long if they can’t heal the party’s relationship with Hispanic voters.

U.S. Presidential Election — Florida Result

Trump +140, Clinton -180

U.S. Presidential Election — Iowa Result

Trump -400, Clinton +250

U.S. Presidential Election — Michigan Result

Clinton -450, Trump +275

This result just makes me shake my head. A common theme for the Republican Party and conservatism in general is that they are adept at getting people to vote against their own self-interest. This is no more clear than in a state like Michigan, which used to drive the economy of the country with its strong manufacturing base. I’m not going to waste my time lecturing those whose jobs have been shipped overseas, sometimes decades ago. That would just make me a pompous ass. But I will write this. Of all the campaign promises Donald Trump made, from building a wall to deporting millions of illegal immigrants, it was his promise to bring back manufzcturing jobs that was the most fantastical of all. Not only are those jobs gone for good, but even if they did come back, they would be done by robots. We are at the beginning of the post-employment economy, and it sure as shit won’t be a Republican who prepares the country for it.

U.S. Presidential Election — Nevada Result

Clinton -190, Trump +145

See what I wrote about Arizona above? Not only has that come to pass in Nevada, but the state is looking solidly Democratic for the foreseeable future.

U.S. Presidential Election — New Hampshire Result

Clinton -190, Trump +145

Sometimes I think the voters of New Hampshire vote the way they do because they just want to be different. They’re like the France of presidential elections. Whichever way the wind is blowing, they blow opposite, just to needle all of us. That’s a shitty attitude, New Hampshire.

U.S. Presidential Election — North Carolina Result

Clinton -110, Trump -130

Up to election day, I had no idea how this state would go. The only reason I included it at all is because my predictions article is for fun, only. Had I been betting real money, I would have avoided this line like the plague.

U.S. Presidential Election — Ohio Result

Trump -290, Clinton +190

Just like Michigan, so goes Ohio. Every single time I visit my family in Akron, Ohio, I drive past the rotting hulks of once-great tire and rubber plants. Firestone, Goodyear, BF Goodrich, General Tire. All big names, and once upon a time, huge employers in the area. Executive presences remain, but the manufacturing is gone for good. The story is the same for the dwindling steel mills that seem to dot every small city in the state. I wish there were good news, but there isn’t. The only way forward is to find something new. I don’t know what that is, which is one of the many good reasons I am not president. And I doubt that our oafish President-elect has a clue, either.

U.S. Presidential Election — Pennsylvania Result

Clinton -350, Trump +255

It’s still a little too early after the election for the numbers to have been properly crunched, but I am really looking forward to reading a post-mortem on how Pennsylvania voted. There are lessons to be learned for 2020 that no potential candidate can ignore.

U.S. Presidential Election — Utah Result

Trump -500, Clinton +1200, McMullin +400

I only included this one because Evan McMullin had been getting some national press. He managed to capture 21% of the vote. That was enough to deny Trump a majority, something that hasn’t happened to a Republican candidate in Utah since 1992, and Bush the Elder still won the state.

U.S. Presidential Election — Virginia Result

Clinton -500, Trump +300

U.S. Presidential Election — Wisconsin Result

Clinton -500, Trump +300

I doubt many people saw this coming. This is another state I’m looking forward to examining, to see just how important Republican voter suppression laws were to tipping the contest to Trump, or whether urban and young voters were overwhelmed by rural turnout, or a combination of both.

U.S. Senate Election — Control of the Senate

Democrats -330, Republicans +210

It seems the electorate was less willing to split the ticket than many of us thought.

U.S. Senate Election — Florida Result

Marco Rubio (R) -800, Patrick Murphy (D) +400

Marco Rubio is a coward.

U.S. Senate Election — Indiana Result

Evan Bayh (D) -190, Todd Young (R) +140

In retrospect, this was a stupid pick on my part. Bayh was getting hammered with the carpetbagger label during the campaign, and he ended up getting his ass handed to him by ten points.

U.S. Senate Election — Missouri Result

Roy Blunt (R) +130, Jason Kander (D) -160

U.S. Senate Election — Nevada Result

Catherine Cortez Mastro (D) -200, Joe Heck (R) +150

U.S. Senate Election — New Hampshire Result

Maggie Hassan (D) -220, Kelly Ayotte (R) +150

U.S. Senate Election — North Carolina Result

Deborah Ross (D) +140, Richard Burr (R) -200

U.S. Senate Election — Pennsylvania Result

Kate McGinty (D) -500, Pat Toomey (R) +300

 

And that’s it, the results for all my picks. The final tally is 17 wins versus 9 losses. Again I have proven myself to be a gambling god. I am willing to trade this immense power of mine in exchange for Trump somehow, in some way, turning into a competent president. I’m not holding my breath. Come back in four years to see how I fare in the Nikki Haley/Sherrod Brown contest. Of course, that is contingent on there being an election in 2020.