Oval Office Thunderdome

The most amazing thing about Trump’s performance tonight is how much it was missed. Right now, whole piles of electoral votes east of the Mississippi are still up for grabs, after midnight. Clinton is still mathematically in this, but nothing has broken her way tonight, and there’s no reason to expect things will all of a sudden win her victory.

Was Clinton really despised so much that she couldn’t beat Donald Trump? Was the conservative disinformation machine that effective that voters could not make a fair comparison between her and Trump? Did people place far more weight on the email scandal than was deserved? Did James Comey deliver the election to Trump?

Or was this truly a populist rebellion? Has government gotten so out of touch with a majority of American voters that our representatives missed an underlying current of dissatisfaction? That’s a legitimate question. When the economy is doing well and unemployment is low, the temptation is to say that there is no big problem in the country. Apparently, there are other concerns than the economic that can sway the electorate. Figure out what that is, please.

I could not be more surprised at Donald Trump’s success tonight. For one, the polls were only fleetingly in Trump’s favor, and the electoral models even less so. When I look at this outcome, all I can see is a failure on the part of the American voter to do an honest comparison between the two candidates. There was an equivalency in voters’ opinions that had no basis in reality. Despite Clinton’s flaws (many of which are imaginary), nothing should have been sufficient to disqualify her compared to Trump. Donald Trump is not just unqualified for the presidency from a professional perspective, but from a temperamental one. Yet there he looks to be, occupying the same office as true giants of American, and human, history. It will be a tall order, indeed, for the United States to recover from a Trump presidency. The future of our country has not been this uncertain for a very long time.

At this point, it feels like the election will be called for Donald Trump within the hour. Everything is breaking his way. It is extremely hard to describe my reaction to this. There is still a fair amount of disbelief, buoyed by the fact the important states have yet to be called, and there is still hope for Clinton. But the news has been bad since 9pm, and it has never gotten better. In all likelihood, Donald Trump will be the 45th President of the United States. The premiere position in the world will be occupied by a charlatan who has no respect for the laws that allowed him to run. It truly is something incredible we are witnessing.

From a personal perspective, there will be pain from a Trump presidency. With a GOP congress, it’s probably a given that Obamacare will be repealed, and my health insurance along with it. What a wonderful turn of events.

This is quite the gut punch.

It’s hard to believe it, but Hillary Clinton is losing this election right now. Michigan needs to be called before we get an idea of how the race is going. To give readers an idea of how precarious Clinton’s position is right now, Michigan was not expected to be an important state to the outcome of this election. Her path to the presidency is now more narrow than Trump’s. Extraordinary. Donald Trump — DONALD FUCKING TRUMP — is now poised to be the most powerful person in the world. The good news for me is that New York City is targeted by around 100 Russian nuclear warheads, so when the bombs fall, we’re talking a rate of about one nuclear detonation ever fifteen seconds for a half hour. I probably won’t feel a thing.

Dispensing with all the hyperbole, I am very surprised at Trump’s turnout and rate of support. Just about everyone seems to have missed the huge amount of disaffection for Clinton, and the impact of Trump’s emotional appeal. There is no reasonable explanation for Trump, so his possible, but growing more likely, victory tonight has absolutely nothing to do with a rational examination of the issues, or Trump’s ability address them. This is all visceral.

The continued lack of calls from all battleground states, and a couple supposedly secure states, is a very bad sign for Clinton. Ohio was called for Trump but that wasn’t really a battleground state after the Comey letter. It’s beginning to look like Clinton will be losing at least one state she was supposed to win. Maybe Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota. Maybe Colorado. Her path to the White House is turning more precarious with every minute that goes by. Incredulity grows alongside. The massive turnout for Trump is confirming the existence of a country that so many of us did not, or chose not, to believe in. Even if Clinton manages to squeak out a victory tonight, the dread will not leave any time soon.

Virginia was just called for Clinton.

It might be time for America to begin girding itself for bad news. None of the battleground states have been called so far, and all of them are very, very close. A race that was in no doubt just a couple of weeks ago now appears to be a tossup. Or not. Just one call going Clinton’s way will end the drama. Ohio, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina. One of those goes Clinton and this massive tension evaporates. Florida is currently creeping away from Clinton, and Michigan is showing signs of going Clinton. The Detroit Free Press called Michigan for Clinton, but no one else is taking that leap.

This is a much more nervous early phase of the election than it should be.

I was just trying to think of the thing I dislike the most about Donald Trump, and I couldn’t pick just one thing. But, I’ve never been comfortable with the man. I remember when he first got famous back in the 1980s. He was always associated with sleaze and greed. Those were his two defining characteristics. He owned casinos and had mistresses. He was a prime, grade-A shithead, from day one to election day.

North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida keep see-sawing back and forth, causing much consternation on the internet and in my notifications. Those three states don’t bother me nearly as much as Michigan. Hillary can lose Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina and still squeak by, but Michigan is an essential state to keep. It’s turning out that Trump motivated more Republican voters to turn out than expected. His support is quite impressive for someone who has been condemned so consistently by the members of his party who are not craven.

I had thought for a while that when push came to shove, GOP voters just couldn’t bring themselves to pull the lever for Clinton, no matter how much they hate Trump. They would get in that booth, and months of declarations and decisions would melt away as they did their duty as good Republicans and voted for Trump.

There’s that old line, “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.” That’s not hyperbole. The Republican Party’s strength has always been enforcing discipline among the coalitions and the voters. Of course GOP voters would come home in droves when it came time to vote. They’re like trained dogs.

No battleground states have been called yet, so the election has entered a weird sort of stasis. Friends, alternately worried or appeased, have been texting. How should we feel? Who is really winning? As to who is winning, neither of them is, yet. As to how to feel? Try not to feel anything until the call is made.

There are some worrying signs coming out of Michigan. It would be very bad for Clinton if she loses Michigan.