2016 Presidential Election – Page 4

Oval Office Thunderdome: SOOOOPAAAHHHHHHH TOOOOOSSSDAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!

It’s here! The biggest day of the primary season (only to be superseded, possibly, by a chaotic GOP convention in July — I may have to visit the old family in Ohio for that one).

Each party has 11 states up for grabs tonight, with a big chunk of delegates to boot. There won’t be much in the way of surprises tonight, but I’m going to live blog it anyway, because it gives me an excuse to watch Republican pundits go through the five stages of grief on live television. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: SOOOOPAAAHHHHHHH TOOOOOSSSDAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!”

Oval Office Thunderdome: Bringing the Crazy Might Work

I’ve written a couple of times before about how delegate math in the Republican presidential nominating process makes it harder for a right wing candidate to win the nomination than a candidate who is perceived as moderate. For example, on Super Tuesday in 2008, John McCain locked up the nomination. Much of that was due to victories in New York and California, which awarded him 250 delegates. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee’s total haul from five victories that day was about 150 delegates. The lesson was that, as a Republican, ignoring New York, California, and other states that reliably vote Democratic in the general election can be sound strategy in the fall, but ignoring these states in the primaries will cost a candidate the nomination. But, this theory largely relies on scheduling. What would happen if the GOP primaries in Democratic-leaning states were pushed to later in the schedule? Next year, we will all find out. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: Bringing the Crazy Might Work”

Oval Office Thunderdome: George Pataki Has a Shot

Former Governor of New York George Pataki has announced that he is running for the 2016 Republican nomination for president. He joins a pretty crowded field (the Wikipedia page on the GOP candidates is fascinating). His name recognition isn’t great, and it’s been nine years since he last held public office. At first glance, there isn’t a lot to separate Pataki from all the other candidates whose polling hovers in the low single digits. But there is one big thing. He’s not an arch conservative. He hasn’t spent the entire Obama administration blasting anything and everything the president has done, nor has he spent much time pandering to the nut job base of the Republican Party. He hasn’t pegged gay marriage to natural disasters, called the Constitution the word of God, or questioned whether or not the military is going to invade Texas. In short, he doesn’t have nearly as much baggage as someone like Ted Cruz or Mike Huckabee. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: George Pataki Has a Shot”

Oval Office Thunderdome: Ted Cruz Will Never Be President

The Republican Party has a problem. They have mastered the art of gerrymandering to the point that they can win the House every two years while receiving less total votes, by millions, than Democratic candidates. They have also been able to leverage the conservatism of less populous states to win control of the Senate, even though the Republican members of that body, over the course of the three election cycles that turn over the Senate, received less votes than their Democratic counterparts across the aisle, again by millions. But the story is different when it comes to presidential politics. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: Ted Cruz Will Never Be President”