There was yet another Republican presidential debate last night. These debates are finally human-sized, the number of candidates having been whittled down to just four. Joining the frontrunner, Donald Trump, on stage were Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, and Governor Ted Kasich. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: What a Bunch of Cowards”
I’ve written a couple of times before about how delegate math in the Republican presidential nominating process makes it harder for a right wing candidate to win the nomination than a candidate who is perceived as moderate. For example, on Super Tuesday in 2008, John McCain locked up the nomination. Much of that was due to victories in New York and California, which awarded him 250 delegates. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee’s total haul from five victories that day was about 150 delegates. The lesson was that, as a Republican, ignoring New York, California, and other states that reliably vote Democratic in the general election can be sound strategy in the fall, but ignoring these states in the primaries will cost a candidate the nomination. But, this theory largely relies on scheduling. What would happen if the GOP primaries in Democratic-leaning states were pushed to later in the schedule? Next year, we will all find out. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: Bringing the Crazy Might Work”
This could have been a headline on November 7th, 2012:
Romney Wins the Presidency 286-252 Despite Losing Popular Vote
How is this possible? It’s easy when politicians are willing to engage in trickery. Let me explain. Last week, the Virginia Senate made news by advancing Senate Bill 723. The bill is aimed at changing the way the state allocates its electoral votes in presidential elections. Currently, the winner of the popular vote statewide wins all of the state’s 13 electoral votes. In the new legislation, electoral votes would be allocated based on who won the popular vote in each congressional district, with the state’s two at large votes (based on U.S. Senate membership) allocated to the candidate who won the most congressional districts. Continue reading “Oval Office Thunderdome: Electoral Shenanigans”
Election day is upon us at last. The older I get, the shorter the years seem to get. Except for presidential elections. They just seem to keep getting longer, and longer, and longer...No matter. Hopefully, there will be a clear winner tonight, and I, along with the rest of the country, will get a bit of a breather before the politicians and the media begin gearing up for the 2014 midterms. How tragic that we have such a dynamic democracy, but it wears us down so much.
Like Super Tuesday, Missile Test will be updating live tonight, until the race is called, or I’m either too tired or too drunk to continue on. Continue reading “Here We Go Again”
Four years ago, this site offered a modest number of predictions about how some of the races would turn out, with little nuance and no acknowledgement that there is a more exciting way to pick winners and losers in an election. That was boring. Everyone does that. Continue reading “Missile Test Predicts! Degenerate Gambler Edition”